Gosh, really, we are heading to ICT and trying to figure out if the storms go away in Kansas...or they keep rumbling east. I really have no idea what to do with anything today. A crap shoot at best. Maybe the surface obs will hint at something later. Not a lot of confidence that the RUC will nail things. But, hey we can hope can't we.
Sunday, June 15, 2008
Stop the Madness!
Gosh, really, we are heading to ICT and trying to figure out if the storms go away in Kansas...or they keep rumbling east. I really have no idea what to do with anything today. A crap shoot at best. Maybe the surface obs will hint at something later. Not a lot of confidence that the RUC will nail things. But, hey we can hope can't we.
Friday, June 13, 2008
Chase 4...gotta get better than this.
We were planning on chasing today. Until a watch went up at 11:30AM and turned into a
crappy line within two minutes. So we went to Kansas City and to Jess'n'Jim's.
Traffic in St Louis, an accident on I-57 and slow gas in the middle of Mo
is making this a very long day. We should be at the restaurant at 9pm. We
will chase in SW KS tomorrow...not in agreement with SPC with only the
panhandle. So I am thinking more like Dodge and points south as storms
move south into OK...looks like we might be there for a few days. Tough
week to find anything...but at least we won't be in Iowa.
crappy line within two minutes. So we went to Kansas City and to Jess'n'Jim's.
Traffic in St Louis, an accident on I-57 and slow gas in the middle of Mo
is making this a very long day. We should be at the restaurant at 9pm. We
will chase in SW KS tomorrow...not in agreement with SPC with only the
panhandle. So I am thinking more like Dodge and points south as storms
move south into OK...looks like we might be there for a few days. Tough
week to find anything...but at least we won't be in Iowa.
Wednesday, June 4, 2008
Iowa Tornadoes
Dave Mayhew, Tyler Allison, John Volmer and I had an itching to chase. So we did. Tomorrow was going to be the big day but we might as well try to make the most out of today. We could make Nebraska in time for storms. I was not impressed with the forecast winds but there was a warm front that had been active and the storms that would fire near it today should travel along it. So we headed out after John had a meeting at the DuPage EOC.
I figured we could make Des Moines by 4 PM and Omaha by 5:30. But instead, a storm forming along the river of the IA/NE border grabbed my attention. We headed south on 59 and aimed at that storm. Within about 15 minutes of our arrival, the storm was tor'd with a spotter report just on the NE side of the river. We got it about 15 minutes later and watched a fairly disorganized storm. It had a well defined clear slot but we were unable to figure which updraft might produce the tornado. There were a few regions of ascent apparent. We stayed with the storm as it moved east when I saw a brief spin up beneath cloud base. Tornado one near Malverne.
We stayed with it a little while and as the hook on GRLevel3 got better, so did the storm. Tyler saw it first and it was on the ground about 5 minutes.
After it lifted, we kept with the storm and again saw it cycle up a bit. We watched it near the town of Emerson.
We followed the storm further east but although the inflow increased, the storm looked outflow dominant. Radar showed large scale rotation which is what it looked like to us. We left it.
A few minutes afterward we heard a report of a tornado right where we had left. I am doubtful of that report although the wind in the RFD could have been strong. Oh well...lots of rain and things that were tough to spot. We saw a few good ones tonight and more might be on the way tomorrow.
Paul
I figured we could make Des Moines by 4 PM and Omaha by 5:30. But instead, a storm forming along the river of the IA/NE border grabbed my attention. We headed south on 59 and aimed at that storm. Within about 15 minutes of our arrival, the storm was tor'd with a spotter report just on the NE side of the river. We got it about 15 minutes later and watched a fairly disorganized storm. It had a well defined clear slot but we were unable to figure which updraft might produce the tornado. There were a few regions of ascent apparent. We stayed with the storm as it moved east when I saw a brief spin up beneath cloud base. Tornado one near Malverne.
We stayed with it a little while and as the hook on GRLevel3 got better, so did the storm. Tyler saw it first and it was on the ground about 5 minutes.
After it lifted, we kept with the storm and again saw it cycle up a bit. We watched it near the town of Emerson.
We followed the storm further east but although the inflow increased, the storm looked outflow dominant. Radar showed large scale rotation which is what it looked like to us. We left it.
A few minutes afterward we heard a report of a tornado right where we had left. I am doubtful of that report although the wind in the RFD could have been strong. Oh well...lots of rain and things that were tough to spot. We saw a few good ones tonight and more might be on the way tomorrow.
Paul
Monday, May 26, 2008
The END
Frustrating and tiring way to end a chase. We left Pratt around 4 after an OFB hit the town from the convection to the east. Towers going up in Kiowa County. Took some nice back roads and watched two towers for a while. Very few road options and when one finally got its act together we were a little late getting in front of it near Greensburg. We were going to head east on 54 but the prospects of monster hail told me to go back south before going east. Reports of windshield losses confirmed that choice. Unfortunately, it cost a lot of time in that part of Kansas. We eventually caught the storm as it was going into Pratt. Must have missed Rich Thompson's tornado by two miles through the rain. We drove through the RFD as we headed east on 54. We were at the place where the other tornado reports came from and cannot verify anything. Just nothing appeared. It did look like there *may* have been some lowering just to our north. We worked to get in front of it before Turon but it was clearly throwing out cold air and we gave up on it because we needed gas in Kingman and then started heading home.
We have had some good successes this week but were incredibly unlucky. When we had great storms it would produce a good tornado (Bison gustnado yesterday was far from the storms updraft, BTW) We showed up a few minutes late after trying hard for 90 minutes. Oy! I guess we could call wrapping rain curtains a tornado, but the RFD does that a lot...so I will say that we didn't see a tornado.
Todays storms blew up too fast all over the place. For the amount of mid-level lapse rates, convection didnt seem to explode much. Even this storm had problems staying independent as new updrafts kept feeding it from the south rather than become one continuous updraft.
Oh well...one more trip in 18 days.
Paul and Matt
We have had some good successes this week but were incredibly unlucky. When we had great storms it would produce a good tornado (Bison gustnado yesterday was far from the storms updraft, BTW) We showed up a few minutes late after trying hard for 90 minutes. Oy! I guess we could call wrapping rain curtains a tornado, but the RFD does that a lot...so I will say that we didn't see a tornado.
Todays storms blew up too fast all over the place. For the amount of mid-level lapse rates, convection didnt seem to explode much. Even this storm had problems staying independent as new updrafts kept feeding it from the south rather than become one continuous updraft.
Oh well...one more trip in 18 days.
Paul and Matt
Sunday, May 25, 2008
Another Day - Highest Hopes Yet
Well, after not going south when we should have and watching a bust unfold in southern NE, we are looking for redemption tomorrow while staying in Omaha.
I am not buying the solution for tomorrow that Iowa will have the best potential. Low-level winds veers quite a bit with the overall cyclone along the US/Canada border. This is similar to today where westerly momentum overwhelmed the whole cyclone. (With the exception of south toward to OK) I fear the same thing tomorrow across IA and perhaps NE. I am not sure about MN.WI where flow will cross the warm front. To be honest, I will not chase western WI.
However, northern Kansas (west to Oakley-ish if you believe the WRF or more toward Hays with the GFS) looks ready to be lit up. And perhaps the most scary tornadoes yet. A strong influx of moisture with very deep moisture still in place over OK should allow a rapid increase of deeper moisture into northern Kansas tomorrow. Ahead of the next big trough out west (another good day Monday looks to be in the offing) pressures should fall in CO and the winds and dryline should respond in kind. Strong southerly 850 wind should be underneath good southwesterly flow. I like the convergence along the stalled out front. The WRF has consistently hinted at a vort max with sufficient UVV's to prime the atmosphere. As opposed to todays horrible overforecast of CAPE, tomorrow's values of 2-3K look promising, just not sure how tight it will tuck up against the front/dryline.
Forecast hodographs are downright scary at 3Z as greater than 50 kt winds in the llnj materialize. Take a look at the forecast soundings at CNK.
Either way, I believe we will have to cruise further west than we had anticipated. Until we analyze, I am not sure where...somewhere N-Central KS.
Paul
I am not buying the solution for tomorrow that Iowa will have the best potential. Low-level winds veers quite a bit with the overall cyclone along the US/Canada border. This is similar to today where westerly momentum overwhelmed the whole cyclone. (With the exception of south toward to OK) I fear the same thing tomorrow across IA and perhaps NE. I am not sure about MN.WI where flow will cross the warm front. To be honest, I will not chase western WI.
However, northern Kansas (west to Oakley-ish if you believe the WRF or more toward Hays with the GFS) looks ready to be lit up. And perhaps the most scary tornadoes yet. A strong influx of moisture with very deep moisture still in place over OK should allow a rapid increase of deeper moisture into northern Kansas tomorrow. Ahead of the next big trough out west (another good day Monday looks to be in the offing) pressures should fall in CO and the winds and dryline should respond in kind. Strong southerly 850 wind should be underneath good southwesterly flow. I like the convergence along the stalled out front. The WRF has consistently hinted at a vort max with sufficient UVV's to prime the atmosphere. As opposed to todays horrible overforecast of CAPE, tomorrow's values of 2-3K look promising, just not sure how tight it will tuck up against the front/dryline.
Forecast hodographs are downright scary at 3Z as greater than 50 kt winds in the llnj materialize. Take a look at the forecast soundings at CNK.
Either way, I believe we will have to cruise further west than we had anticipated. Until we analyze, I am not sure where...somewhere N-Central KS.
Paul
Friday, May 23, 2008
A Good Start
A good day yesterday for sure. Nothing photogenic but we saw between 4 or 5 tornadoes
Very exciting at times and we all had a good time. I will post more when we have time but right now we are chasing a lot. Several days more of good chase potential. Today is very impressive.
We are headed toward DDC currently and will favor south toward the bigger CAPE and decent shear (but better storm motions). Am concerned about the extensive cool air north and the water soaked roads in the same area that got hit yesterday. 80% of the roads we were on yesterday were dirt. Much north of I-70 will be brutal to be on today if they are not paved.
We also like the high CAPE as per other posts. Current p-falls are not as impressive as yesterday at this time and would favor a little more time before the show begins. I am sure that capping will not be an issue today and would suspect storms will fire all the way down to the Red River as opposed to yesterday's I-40 cut-off. Mid-level lapse rates are a little less than yesterday with cooler 700mb temps invading the region. Storms would spin quickly today north but I am a little concerned about the effect of the cool air. Unless recovery occurs, storms may become big rain bombs quickly.
NE would be interesting if you dont mind cool temps. Very cold 500mb temps (-17) will keep storms going. Model forecasts show rapid destabilization and I am unsure of how much. However, dynamically speaking, this area is impressive. If CAPES > 1000 J/kg are realized, there will be spinners there.
Water vapor imagery hints at some UVVs spreading toward the TX panhandle now and should approach SW KS by 20-21 Z. The one model parameter I found interesting was a more SSWly 850 wind in sw KS giving decent 0-1 SRH and a better chance for storms to move more east. SR surface flow will be pretty decent there.
BTW A supercell hit our hotel last night around 5 AM. A close lightning strike was followed by a crashing thunder which woke me and was then followed by a 15 minute fire drill at the hotel. Everyone looked scruffy in their pj's!
Very exciting at times and we all had a good time. I will post more when we have time but right now we are chasing a lot. Several days more of good chase potential. Today is very impressive.
We are headed toward DDC currently and will favor south toward the bigger CAPE and decent shear (but better storm motions). Am concerned about the extensive cool air north and the water soaked roads in the same area that got hit yesterday. 80% of the roads we were on yesterday were dirt. Much north of I-70 will be brutal to be on today if they are not paved.
We also like the high CAPE as per other posts. Current p-falls are not as impressive as yesterday at this time and would favor a little more time before the show begins. I am sure that capping will not be an issue today and would suspect storms will fire all the way down to the Red River as opposed to yesterday's I-40 cut-off. Mid-level lapse rates are a little less than yesterday with cooler 700mb temps invading the region. Storms would spin quickly today north but I am a little concerned about the effect of the cool air. Unless recovery occurs, storms may become big rain bombs quickly.
NE would be interesting if you dont mind cool temps. Very cold 500mb temps (-17) will keep storms going. Model forecasts show rapid destabilization and I am unsure of how much. However, dynamically speaking, this area is impressive. If CAPES > 1000 J/kg are realized, there will be spinners there.
Water vapor imagery hints at some UVVs spreading toward the TX panhandle now and should approach SW KS by 20-21 Z. The one model parameter I found interesting was a more SSWly 850 wind in sw KS giving decent 0-1 SRH and a better chance for storms to move more east. SR surface flow will be pretty decent there.
BTW A supercell hit our hotel last night around 5 AM. A close lightning strike was followed by a crashing thunder which woke me and was then followed by a 15 minute fire drill at the hotel. Everyone looked scruffy in their pj's!
Wednesday, May 21, 2008
What We Have Waited For
Today was fun even though not a great chase. Started out by touring the CHILL-CSU radar (thanks to Eric Nelson) and that was very cool. Will have pictures for my classes in the future. Afterward headed to Cheyenne WY to await storms that came off the mountains or formed in better air to the east. We waited while storms formed in NE CO. I was glad for the forecasting we did in saying that all of CO would be good and that the TX/OK panhandle would have a chance but remain capped.
Stormed were big windbags!! We struggled in the wind for several hours with east winds gusting over 40mph for a long time. Some good lightning but not good for picture taking. We killed several hundred tumbleweeds! For those who know what I mean I am sure you are laughing in understanding.
Tomorrow looks like a big tornado day. I am sure there will be at least a 15% hatched tornado area on the day one. Significant shear and supercells will be abundant from Kansas to OK with the area we will probably target near the warm front dry line intersection and then stair step down the dry line. Strongly backed flow in the warm sector should allow for may storms with a severe threat. We just hope we do not make mistakes and run into bad luck.
But spring is finally here. And should stay put for the next several days. I am looking forward to the chase now!
Paul
Stormed were big windbags!! We struggled in the wind for several hours with east winds gusting over 40mph for a long time. Some good lightning but not good for picture taking. We killed several hundred tumbleweeds! For those who know what I mean I am sure you are laughing in understanding.
Tomorrow looks like a big tornado day. I am sure there will be at least a 15% hatched tornado area on the day one. Significant shear and supercells will be abundant from Kansas to OK with the area we will probably target near the warm front dry line intersection and then stair step down the dry line. Strongly backed flow in the warm sector should allow for may storms with a severe threat. We just hope we do not make mistakes and run into bad luck.
But spring is finally here. And should stay put for the next several days. I am looking forward to the chase now!
Paul
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)