Sunday, May 25, 2008

Another Day - Highest Hopes Yet

Well, after not going south when we should have and watching a bust unfold in southern NE, we are looking for redemption tomorrow while staying in Omaha.

I am not buying the solution for tomorrow that Iowa will have the best potential. Low-level winds veers quite a bit with the overall cyclone along the US/Canada border. This is similar to today where westerly momentum overwhelmed the whole cyclone. (With the exception of south toward to OK) I fear the same thing tomorrow across IA and perhaps NE. I am not sure about MN.WI where flow will cross the warm front. To be honest, I will not chase western WI.

However, northern Kansas (west to Oakley-ish if you believe the WRF or more toward Hays with the GFS) looks ready to be lit up. And perhaps the most scary tornadoes yet. A strong influx of moisture with very deep moisture still in place over OK should allow a rapid increase of deeper moisture into northern Kansas tomorrow. Ahead of the next big trough out west (another good day Monday looks to be in the offing) pressures should fall in CO and the winds and dryline should respond in kind. Strong southerly 850 wind should be underneath good southwesterly flow. I like the convergence along the stalled out front. The WRF has consistently hinted at a vort max with sufficient UVV's to prime the atmosphere. As opposed to todays horrible overforecast of CAPE, tomorrow's values of 2-3K look promising, just not sure how tight it will tuck up against the front/dryline.

Forecast hodographs are downright scary at 3Z as greater than 50 kt winds in the llnj materialize. Take a look at the forecast soundings at CNK.

Either way, I believe we will have to cruise further west than we had anticipated. Until we analyze, I am not sure where...somewhere N-Central KS.


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