Friday, May 23, 2008

A Good Start

A good day yesterday for sure. Nothing photogenic but we saw between 4 or 5 tornadoes
Very exciting at times and we all had a good time. I will post more when we have time but right now we are chasing a lot. Several days more of good chase potential. Today is very impressive.

We are headed toward DDC currently and will favor south toward the bigger CAPE and decent shear (but better storm motions). Am concerned about the extensive cool air north and the water soaked roads in the same area that got hit yesterday. 80% of the roads we were on yesterday were dirt. Much north of I-70 will be brutal to be on today if they are not paved.

We also like the high CAPE as per other posts. Current p-falls are not as impressive as yesterday at this time and would favor a little more time before the show begins. I am sure that capping will not be an issue today and would suspect storms will fire all the way down to the Red River as opposed to yesterday's I-40 cut-off. Mid-level lapse rates are a little less than yesterday with cooler 700mb temps invading the region. Storms would spin quickly today north but I am a little concerned about the effect of the cool air. Unless recovery occurs, storms may become big rain bombs quickly.

NE would be interesting if you dont mind cool temps. Very cold 500mb temps (-17) will keep storms going. Model forecasts show rapid destabilization and I am unsure of how much. However, dynamically speaking, this area is impressive. If CAPES > 1000 J/kg are realized, there will be spinners there.

Water vapor imagery hints at some UVVs spreading toward the TX panhandle now and should approach SW KS by 20-21 Z. The one model parameter I found interesting was a more SSWly 850 wind in sw KS giving decent 0-1 SRH and a better chance for storms to move more east. SR surface flow will be pretty decent there.

BTW A supercell hit our hotel last night around 5 AM. A close lightning strike was followed by a crashing thunder which woke me and was then followed by a 15 minute fire drill at the hotel. Everyone looked scruffy in their pj's!

1 comment:

Weather Central said...

Oh man, just when I thought I couldn't get more jealous.