tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-74477793789694210142024-03-19T01:18:08.315-07:00Weather on My MindWeather on My Mind - Ponderings on the Weather <b>Paul Sirvatka</b>http://www.blogger.com/profile/15068965033022611607noreply@blogger.comBlogger70125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7447779378969421014.post-1883957141049452622013-06-02T21:51:00.001-07:002013-06-02T21:51:04.629-07:00I wanted to share a story about Tim Samaras. We were in Iowa at the Des
Moines Severe Weather Conference. I had always looked up to Tim thinking
he was a great chaser and impressed by the work he had done. I was
surprised that he was sitting alone at dinner. (At these conferences
people always tend to flock together...it is why at COD conference we
have assigned mixed seating:-) I asked him to join us and got to spend
the next few hours talking with him. I had known him from chasing and
although I had met him a few times in person, knew him mostly from
on-line discussions.<br /><br />He was such a great guy. He was friendly,
cordial to my students and spun a great yarn. I thoroughly enjoyed that
evening getting to know him. He was a passionate, considerate and
encouraging guy. He was humble and patient with everyone. I knew that we
shared the passion and love for severe weather. He had a boyish quality
when he talked about storms. Something that many of my chase friends
share.<br /><br />I think the last time I really got to talk with him was in
Goodland, Kansas after a chase when we stopped at the Pizza Hut for a
late night pizza and beer dinner. He had been getting data for a hail
storm project he was working on. Usually avoiding the storm, he now got
to punch the core on purpose!<br /><br />Tim was always one to wave and say
hi. And I must admit, I will miss the opportunity to meet up with him
again. He will be sadly missed.<br /><br />As chasers, we all do stupid
things, and we all make mistakes in judgement. But we also know that the
supercell is a whole lot more unpredictable than most will give credit
to. When someone of his skill dies, it should make ALL of us stop and
worry and rethink what we do. And in this day of in-vehicle radar, maybe
take a step back and respect the storms even more. Realizing that
chasers are getting a little to casual about getting up-close and
personal. In the old days, before GRlevel3, I know that I was a lot more
afraid, knowing how little I knew. Now I think I know more than I
probably do. And I know a heckuva lot more about storms than most
chasers. And i amazes me what some chasers will do.<br /><br />I hope that
Tim's death provides a lesson that all chasers will heed. We are still
powerless. The storm ought to be respected and that what we do is
dangerous. Foolish behavior has no place on the highways of tornado
alley.<br /><br />And for heaven's sake, chasers ought to think 4 times
before they think they know enough to always be safe. And damn it, let's
learn more about what is really happening in the storm. I am sick and
tired of too many shows telling the wrong thing about storm structure.
And encouraging chasers to go out. This rant will be for another time,
but the reality is that some of the reports of a large wedge, etc...do
not save lives. It was clear on radar that this was a fricking beast of a
storm. I knew that bad things were happening. I am not sure that
people's lives were saved because there were visual reports of the
storm. People in Oklahoma should know when the NWS says a very dangerous
tornado is occurring, they should respect that.<br /><br />I am rambling
because I have so many thoughts going through my brain. I am a chaser
but I hate what chasing has become. But I cannot blame people for
wanting to see what I see. And I am sorry for the mess much of the media
makes with live reports. Tornado voyeurism. And I am very sorry that
people die in tornadoes and there really is not much we can do to save
everyone one.<br /><br />And I miss Tim.
<b>Paul Sirvatka</b>http://www.blogger.com/profile/15068965033022611607noreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7447779378969421014.post-516167886056463392013-03-03T15:23:00.000-08:002013-03-03T15:23:03.680-08:00March and SnowWell, it is officially meteorological spring. And I am thinking about weather again. Well spring weather, that is. But here we go...winter hangs around. Another Tuesday snow storm. Great. We are trying to have a meeting with our AMS and talk about Dual Pol radar with Mike Zuranski. (7PM BIC 3504 at College of DuPage. The vent is open to all and free.) Last week, we had to cancel since the school cancelled classes. I know why they did. It was a nice gesture for people who had to travel through the rush hour in pretty decent snow. It really wasn't bad and not that dangerous. And by 10PM the roads were all pretty clear. But now, this Tuesday looks to be a little worse.<br />
<br />
The NWS has issued a Winter Storm Watch and are indicating possibly 8-10". If we cancelled with 3-4", I guess that means we will cancel with this as the time seems to be similar.Makes me think school should not have been cancelled last week as it will most likely need to be this week.<br />
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If we get 8" of snow, it will put us very close to normal on the year for snowfall. Considering we got nothing through most of January, well, let's just say we have had our share recently.<br />
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I miss last March. I need to go someplace warm.<br />
<br />
Oh, and I have a new blog site with my personal and spiritual ponderings at <a href="http://weatherpaul.blogspot.com/">Life of Paul.</a> Check it out.<b>Paul Sirvatka</b>http://www.blogger.com/profile/15068965033022611607noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7447779378969421014.post-31664103890503805002012-06-26T13:18:00.003-07:002012-06-26T13:18:47.070-07:00Hearing His Voice<br />
After going through my life piece by piece I realize that I was a person of little faith. I had <i>belief</i>. But I didn't really <i>trust</i>. And now that I am trusting in God to lead my will, it doesn't feel any different. I walk and still am unsure of what to do. But underneath it all I have a trust that God really is in control and that He is leading my life. I still do what I do but I know that things will work, or not work, according to His plan. I am just trying to align myself with His, trusting that roadblocks will prevent me from going the wrong way as long as I let go.<br />
<br />
Today, feeling particularly in need of guidance I decided to seek out to hear from God. This is different than praying when I usually spend the majority of time talking. Today, I would search out what He has to say. A church might be a good place. So I went to St. James church, where I grew up attending. All the doors were locked. Not sure what this has to say about security, the age in which we live and the openness of a place of worship for the people, but I was sad that the church was not open for me. I am not saying anything except that at first I was thinking "has God abandoned me?" I would not give up. Across the street was the Willowbrook Wildlife Preserve. I would visit there and trust that God had a purpose.<br />
<br />
I went to the eagle's cage, the eagle being my favorite bird. A lone bald eagle sat majestically on a high tree, keenly, yet patiently, watching all around. I am amazed by the size and strength of such a magnificent creature. God brought to mind Isaiah 40:31 "<i>but they who wait for the LORD shall renew their strength; they shall mount up with wings like eagles; they shall run and not be weary; they shall walk and not faint."</i> I knew in a moment that God was there, but still awaited his message. So I walked into the cool shade of a stream.<br />
<br />
Not that it was much of a stream. The drought has dried up much of the river bed. There were two sections of still water: ahead of a small dam and further away from the place where I listened for His voice. I sat as quietly as the water, trying to be patient and trying desperately to hear. I waited but heard nothing. I need to hear Him and to know His will for my life and still I heard nothing. I continued to wait, hoping that He would talk but still I did not hear. The stillness of the setting matched the stillness of my listening. But some flash of light caught my eye. I walked onto the old dried riverbed and went to the light source. a small trickle of water persisted between the two ponds of still water.Despite the dry weather, the water still flowed. It was a trickle but it persistently ran from one to another. The water met the second still water which was quite a bit larger in area and I realized that the water was not still at all. The trickle of water went somewhere, and for miles along the path of the stream, water was moving with quiet reflections on the surface.<br />
<br />
I realized that God was telling me that even when things look not to be moving or changing or even making a difference at all, God is still at work - moving and shifting and bringing fresh water to the semi-stagnant lakes. It is not a torrent of change but it is movement. And so I trust that in my life when things feel like there is no movement at all, I know that God is moving and changing. And He never rests nor grows weary. And even when I think <i>I</i> am growing weary, God will lift me up again. I shall walk and not grow faint.<b>Paul Sirvatka</b>http://www.blogger.com/profile/15068965033022611607noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7447779378969421014.post-21225480858164523772012-04-29T22:25:00.002-07:002012-04-29T22:25:59.027-07:00Today is a reason why we chase. A day full of excitement. We started out confused as to how the day really would turn out. The northern part of the Texas panhandle was supposed to tp be the best region for severe. Moisture was supposed to return via decent southeast winds.However, storms that went through last night re-enforced a outflow boundary that was slow to wash out. Additional southeast winds kept upslop clouds in the air for a long time. Some clearing west of the boundary made me think that maybe north was a good thought, but temperature in the 60's and dew points struggling to get out of the 40's soon made me realize that further south might be a better call.<br />
<br />
A well-defined outflow boundary was persistent south of Lubbock but north of Midland Texas. There was a persistent cumulus field along that boundary and a sustained theta-e bullseye along it. We traveled south of Lubbock and at Tahoka moved west. Even though the boundary was south, I could tell that moisture and boundary layer destabilization was arcing northwest behind the mesohigh near Lubbock.<br />
<br />
Soon, cumulus towers were seen to be pushing up. It was less of a cap situation than a persistent convergence situation. But nature has a way of creating thunderstorms and soon one formed just to our northwest.<br />
<br />
We watched the storm develop, initially high-based, but drawing air in. Scud sucking commenced but it became clear that cold air was blowing out. We shot east a little and came across of very well-defined gustnado. As we watched it a few hundred yards away, we saw that it was not doing damage so we decided to drive into it. That was fun. The best circulation was about thirty yards ahead of us. Very cool to watch nature spin.<br />
<br />
A little later, we tried to cut north just ahead of the storm to find a road that was paved and crossed a little wet area. As we were traveling north, Ryan attempted to swat a large fly on the windshield with his hat. He missed but the little metal dingy thing hit the windshield and it spidered! We laughed because, I mean really?!?! Breaking the windshield with a baseball cap?!?!<br />
<br />
We then laughed and proceeded north. About 200 yards before the turn, hail commenced suddenly. And not just a little...but golf balls and maybe bigger.Of course one of the first stones hit the windshield right where the the spiders hit. Of course it spidered even worse. The windshield needs to be replaced. No one else received damage but we eventually got out of the hail.<br />
<br />
Plow winds, gustnadoes, hail, scary lightning...it was all there!<br />
<br />
Then we chased a supercell south of LBB. Chad saw an OFB and thought it might do something. It did. A tornado warning was issued when we were about 14 miles from it. We were unable to see anything with significant inflow dust and the fact that it was dark!<br />
<br />
We all had a great time and were excited and scared and it was intense and fun!<br />
<br />
And we had a good chase on trip 1!!!<br />
<br />
<br /><b>Paul Sirvatka</b>http://www.blogger.com/profile/15068965033022611607noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7447779378969421014.post-58766231799797717522012-04-23T08:54:00.001-07:002012-04-23T08:54:59.708-07:00Fear and AnxietyYou would think after 23 years of storm chasing, I would know one truth: I do not control the weather. But if I knew that truth, I would probably not suffer so much anxiety in letting it be what it is. I need to learn to live each day, try my hardest to understand the patterns, but after all the work I can do, I must let it go.<br />
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You would think I would let myself off the hook because I know I cannot control the weather. You would think I would admire and appreciate what it is and just go with it. No. Like the fool I often am, I try to muscle tornadoes out of skies without clouds. And then get mad and depressed because it did not turn out like I wanted to.<br />
<br />
If this sounds insane, welcome to my world. I try to muscle great things out of situations where I have no control. In people or situations or anything. As far as I know, only God has control. So I offer up my prayer to Him. But it is not for storms or friendships or anything else. I pray for sanity. I pray for peace. That in all situations I trust in Him.<br />
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Of course, I would like a few less storms in my life and a few more on my trip.<br />
<br />
Paul<b>Paul Sirvatka</b>http://www.blogger.com/profile/15068965033022611607noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7447779378969421014.post-31014555994693380892012-04-08T11:16:00.002-07:002012-04-08T11:16:20.560-07:00What Happened on Sunday"And so Simon Peter also came, following him, and entered the tomb; and he saw the linen wrappings lying there and the face-cloth which had been on His head, not lying with the linen wrappings, but rolled up in a place by itself."<br />
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What happened the morning Jesus was raised from the dead? It was not in daylight because Mary Magdelene saw the stone rolled away "while it was still dark." Something happened in that dark tomb. Now let us be clear that Jesus didn't just "appear" alive. It is clear that by the power of God (the Father) Jesus was raised from the dead. Perhaps there were angels (messengers or servants really) who removed his cloths. Perhaps they brought some clothing. But He didn't just "get up" without doing something inside the cave. His face cloth was not lying with the linens. It was "rolled up." I do not understand why that is in the Bible but it must mean something. Perhaps it is to state the despite the miraculous (and I firmly, without a doubt, believe this miracle) that the earthly events still must take place. As long as we are on this earth, there are things that happen in this world. The cloth was rolled up, the stone was moved, Jesus was dressed in clothing, which was apparently clothing that a gardener would wear. These all tell me that the everyday work of earthly existence co-exists with the miraculous work of God.<br />
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God brings me to life, in ways I do not know or understand. I am unaware of the process of how I am brought to life, of how God attends to my earthly needs. But I know that I am alive and it was He who did it. And now the mundane things of life are things that I must partake in.<br />
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There is nothing amazing in this blog. And maybe that is because I am not feeling completely alive. And maybe I am still in the cave and it is still dark outside. In my life, maybe this is just the moment that I am first made alive. I am not aware of what is happening in the cave but maybe the first thing I need to do is roll up the cloth that has covered my face.<b>Paul Sirvatka</b>http://www.blogger.com/profile/15068965033022611607noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7447779378969421014.post-79890839600787150612012-04-07T09:06:00.000-07:002012-04-07T09:34:52.974-07:00Dreading SaturdayMost people love Saturday. Its stuck between Friday (still a work day) and Sunday (a day to recover.) If asked a thousand people if Saturday should be longer, I would guess a thousand of them would say yes.<br />
<br />
But I hate Saturdays.<br />
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Yesterday we celebrated Good Friday, a day we we remember the Passion (suffering) of Jesus who died on the cross. Tomorrow, we celebrate Easter, the day where Jesus was raised by God from the grave. To celebrate the fact that life has conquered death. But what about Saturday?<br />
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Imagine the actual Saturday between the day Jesus died and the Resurrection. What was going through his disciples' minds? Now I have heard preachers preach that when we go through times of trouble (Friday) we need to remember SUNDAY'S COMING! But we know the end of the story. The disciples did not know what was happening nor what was coming. To them Friday meant death - death of their friend, their teacher, their Lord. There was no getting around it. There was no hope, no vision of the things to come. Just despair, confusion, anxiety and fear. That Saturday must have been the longest Saturday in history.<br />
<br />
If I am truthful, I am living in Saturday. When I talk of things that cause pain and death and suffering (see yesterday's post) I live in Saturday. I feel despair because I do not see how this pain could end. I feel confusion because I do not know how to navigate through the day. I feel anxiety because things are not going as I would like them to go. I feel fear because I do not believe this death I experience will ever be turned back into life. It seems as though my Saturday has been lasting a real long time. I don't know that Sunday is coming. In fact, I feel that Sunday will <i>never </i>come.
But that is my lack of faith because I <i>have </i>experienced Sundays in my life before. And I forget. There have been dark times and I have been brought out through them. There have been struggles I thought would never end but they did. And the disciples thought that Jesus was lost to them forever. But He rose back to life. He gave to them a new life as well.<br />
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Think of the change in Jesus' followers. On Saturday, they were locked in a room of despair. But on Sunday, they were changed and empowered to change the world.
So if you are in Saturday (like me) then I suggest we stick together. Imagine together a life of fullness that might await. Believing in a new life coming is not fantasy. It is a promise made by One who knows what was meant to be. It is made by One who has the power to change the present. It is made by one who knows the pain of Friday, the silence of Saturday and the joy of Sunday yet to come. Let's remind each other of the hope we await.<b>Paul Sirvatka</b>http://www.blogger.com/profile/15068965033022611607noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7447779378969421014.post-6255516743192812482012-04-06T08:37:00.005-07:002012-04-06T09:00:28.493-07:00War HorseI saw the movie Warhorse a few months ago. There were some beautiful scenes in the movie but I was not a big fan of the story line. There was one very powerful scene that moved the audience to tears however and that was when the Warhorse found himself in the front lines between the Allied forces and the Axis forces. This beautiful and strong creature ran into the barbed wire fences that separated the two enemy sides. The barbs chewed into the horse's flesh and sinew. The more the horse felt the pain and panic of being trapped, the more he ran. And the more he struggled, the more the barbed wire trapped him in the middle of dangerous territory.<br /><br />It wasn't till yesterday, that I realized how much like the Warhorse I am. <br /><br />No matter how strong or able I might be, I have run into dangerous territory and became entangled in life-threatening barbs. And the more I struggled to get free, the more barbs ran into my flesh and held me captive. Sometimes I do not know how I got so far into such a dangerous location and cannot believe I kept running, trusting on my own strength to carry me through. I do know a few things.<br /><br />First, I am helpless to get out by myself. I have not the ability to cut these wires. I am hopelessly ensnared.<br /><br />Second, I am bleeding and in great pain. And since I cannot get out alone, my own demise is soon to occur. And I am not only in pain, but there is no way to get out without more pain. Pain is inevitable.<br /><br />Third, there is hope. Because the God who created me has not abandoned me. Even in enemy territory the Warhorse was set free as men from both sides of the front lines took pity on the creature and came to cut him free. Removing the barbed wire from the frightened horse caused some of the barbs further into the horses muscles. The pain was excruciating but it did not kill him. With the patience and skill of others, the horse was set free little by little. And with each barb removed from the horse, the pain lessened. The Warhorse calmed down and quit struggling against the pain. Instead, the horse endured it until it was free. <br /><br />My pain can be great but there is no escaping the pain. I have run too deep into that field. God has sent rescuers to help remove the barbs. It will take time. It will be painful at times. But with each cut of the wire, I am one step closer to being free. The scars will eventually heal. Pain will endure until I die but I will not die from this excursion into dangerous territory. In fact, I will not die at all, but live.<br /><br />Because 2000 years ago, my Rescuer was caught by barbs and thorns and nails that trapped him without hope Himself. He endured the pain, and His Father removed the this Great Warhorse from the snares of sin and restored Him to new life. His scars remain, and He remembers the pain. But He who endured the pain and went through dangerous territory is now the One who will come to our aid.<b>Paul Sirvatka</b>http://www.blogger.com/profile/15068965033022611607noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7447779378969421014.post-82124394502807972652011-04-21T21:00:00.000-07:002011-04-21T21:07:33.119-07:00Awaiting the new chase yearIt has been a busy and cold spring. We have upgraded our web site (http://weather.cod.edu) which has some amazing new uses. It has taken a lot of time but I think it is worth it. Unfortunately, I have not thought about chasing around here. <br /><br />Tornadoes have been abundant this April. Such an extreme amount of cold weather across the northern half of the US with slightly above normal temps across the south - severe weather is only to be expected.<br /><br />Progressive waves should continue. And so as we set out next Friday, I am looking forward to enough severe weather events to keep all of us COD stormchasers happy.<b>Paul Sirvatka</b>http://www.blogger.com/profile/15068965033022611607noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7447779378969421014.post-4168047101946752062010-05-01T22:29:00.000-07:002010-05-01T22:31:07.622-07:00Chase 1 Ends...good and badWell, the good news is that no one is hurt and was saw a tornado. The bad news is we lost our roof rack after driving into a downed power line.<br /><br />We had been driving back to stay with the storm, nothing major just trying to get back to where the supercell was. We turned a curve and we say the lines hanging across the road a few feet above the ground. Ryan tried to stop and avoid the wires but it was not possible. The wires hit <br />across our windshield and moved up across the windows. No problems until it hit and caught the rack. We carried the wires for a while until it knocked everything off the roof. We were afraid there might have been live wires and were afraid at first to get out of the van. Van 2 pulled up and shown the lights, saw that we had pulled away from the wires and had lost the rack.<br /><br />Laura determined that the wires were not live any more (along with a few cops who came on scene) and they moved the wires off the rack. They had come unraveled and it was pretty cool. <br />We lost the wires from all the antennas and the sleeve on the fiberglass roof had come undone. Luckily for us, Nichole and Amy had been chasing nearby and came to our aid. We were able to salvage most of the stuff into the back of Nichole's truck. We left behind some of the black conduit figuring it was easy enough to replace them. We left the scene and found a different hotel room in Jonesboro. Lots of little things to do but that is the basic story. All are well and the van has minimal damage. Our rack, well...that will require some serious work.<br /><br />Oh...and we saw a nighttime tornado. That was cool. Tough day. More later.<br /><br />Paul<b>Paul Sirvatka</b>http://www.blogger.com/profile/15068965033022611607noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7447779378969421014.post-30079765577667197062010-04-29T09:09:00.000-07:002010-04-29T09:12:16.175-07:00Chase One Finally going chasingAfter a depressing start to our trip we are starting a chase today. We left last Thursday and chased Friday but were met by a letdown of storms unable to fire in southeastern NE.Saturday was a cold mess with the only good storms racing through Mississippi in areas almost impossible to chase. I never have chased in MS and may never end up there by choice.<br /><br />Anyway, today's forecast looks like this. Let's hope I can update this blog many times this year with good summaries of successful chases.<br /><br />I love it when the models start to follow my analysis. I was not sure of the problem with the CA soundings last night and whether or not the 00Z run was affected by that. I was surprised at the extent of the low to the north. This morning’s run seemed better with the low and attendant triple point further south. We did a lot of analysis last night and this morning and saw the development of a greater CIN layer that moved from SW KS to SE NE this morning. In its wake, lower mid-level lapse rates and weaker capping are also present. Cooler mid-level air looks to advect in and thus the model eradicates CIN by 00Z. Additional forcing is possible with as the SE CO low moves east and deepens slightly in association with jet diffluence. As Rich pointed out subtle shortwave INVOF four corners region may affect parts of the southern and central plains by later this PM. <br /><br />I believe storms are most likely to initiate in the SLN-HUT-GBD area. It would be nice to have 84/61 and that is what we are hoping for initially. Modified DDC sounding indicates no cap left at those readings. The WRF does not have a tight moisture gradient as expected and we are hoping that those values can make it to region of greatest low-level convergence. Storm motion may be along quasi-stationary front and tornado-potential looks to be enhanced if not undercut too rapidly given relatively high LCL’s. <br /><br />I would think other storms are possible down the dry line toward the OK border given 60 dews. Currently we are watching for the 63 dews to advect north and slightly west across north TX.<br /><br />After a long week of nothing, we are hoping for daytime convection. We will also be happy with good lightning tonight!<b>Paul Sirvatka</b>http://www.blogger.com/profile/15068965033022611607noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7447779378969421014.post-67472357212087631592009-07-13T23:42:00.000-07:002009-07-13T23:48:13.801-07:00Nebraska in July8 Hours on one storm. Pretty amazing day despite no tornado. <br /><br />Started in Newcastle and decided to follow the incipient storms north of the Black Hills. Had to cut through the Hills which are beautiful but slow! Finally caught the southern supercell west of Philip SD. The storm had strong rotation but a lot of dry air in the RFD and only once looked like it might spin out a quick tornado 18 miles west of Kadoka SD.<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiZk2GqANUXlLfAMot1nTMfgMP3eoBfBzlFWuL0AnK2EhI7jb8uS38MYKEIWmBb2vdCNFiqyXRr7B7a_ngxr_yYhV_WOmYgAXlYAu5noiSCYN85Q7gDiZAG0P9eFFVPFAFT8If_7guhCuc/s1600-h/earlywall.jpg"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 218px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiZk2GqANUXlLfAMot1nTMfgMP3eoBfBzlFWuL0AnK2EhI7jb8uS38MYKEIWmBb2vdCNFiqyXRr7B7a_ngxr_yYhV_WOmYgAXlYAu5noiSCYN85Q7gDiZAG0P9eFFVPFAFT8If_7guhCuc/s320/earlywall.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5358202858744836642" /></a><br /><br />We followed the storm south and east and had various reports on Spotternet. Despite the good environment just to its southeast it never got rooted in the BL. A few occlusions with not strongly buoyant air and tornadoes would not occur.<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj_uudi2V3NpRzgcwN4t7mnQXY9HH_w0XX7O9OZ3Db4sLVlIgYlG4w7YFGuL0x2SmAuvGHCqx-AFoF2VGIW0zm2O5IuUl4lkJTDoZWrWuhysknx0ZsAxGOhLpzgBCndSPlXpLo_nL_rqmw/s1600-h/elevated.jpg"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 223px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj_uudi2V3NpRzgcwN4t7mnQXY9HH_w0XX7O9OZ3Db4sLVlIgYlG4w7YFGuL0x2SmAuvGHCqx-AFoF2VGIW0zm2O5IuUl4lkJTDoZWrWuhysknx0ZsAxGOhLpzgBCndSPlXpLo_nL_rqmw/s320/elevated.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5358203120604234178" /></a> The storm continued to have an elevated appearance until a little later when it suddenly changed its look to a more traditional supercell base. Even still, the storm had a problem not becoming outflow dominant. The low-level rotation never tightened up at all despite some nice vortex arch bookend couplets.<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEijcSrpuQLyV_AcRpIcRHaC5Z9KbeKcwUi6dhAQ9Lo2HpOoYyUogdZYSseX9K2tMJU2HxnX-K_P8YmF-wVsA-1JQbjlx0W6gLQV60soIRxF2Mx-vX4xeeut7efQVt8HEdhezBShAExqStE/s1600-h/wall2.jpg"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 226px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEijcSrpuQLyV_AcRpIcRHaC5Z9KbeKcwUi6dhAQ9Lo2HpOoYyUogdZYSseX9K2tMJU2HxnX-K_P8YmF-wVsA-1JQbjlx0W6gLQV60soIRxF2Mx-vX4xeeut7efQVt8HEdhezBShAExqStE/s320/wall2.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5358203134535603106" /></a><br /><br />As the storm approached Rosebud a tor report was announced. We were close but never saw anything that looked suspicious. The storm looked more HP-ish at the time and rain may have obscured our view. But then the inflow started to pick up. A few times near the border, travel was impossible with almost due easterly inflow jets picking up dust and reducing visibility to zero. Inflow winds were measured from 35-40 kts but were estimated to be higher with possible gusts to 50. A wrong turn as a storm merger happened led us down the wrong way. We found a way back to Rt 83 through a back road and were treated to a massive and awe-inspiring beast of a storm.<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg642a5BeQcKCE5GUlEtOtpyJ90ctSwMtF5PG64sv2tvsfmQMIXY73cCqGjZN41jCtjsW8fD0CWXWAZnchiqkBMAXlO9jrma9tC805QU5dfk9srfhSpGCSje_XSiIM0Ljglol66y-12CVQ/s1600-h/barrel.jpg"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 213px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg642a5BeQcKCE5GUlEtOtpyJ90ctSwMtF5PG64sv2tvsfmQMIXY73cCqGjZN41jCtjsW8fD0CWXWAZnchiqkBMAXlO9jrma9tC805QU5dfk9srfhSpGCSje_XSiIM0Ljglol66y-12CVQ/s320/barrel.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5358203141927675874" /></a> Inflow winds were howling and lightning was frequent. With large hail repots from Valentine we didnt want to mess with it.<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhrrNmUZ0JM4lQhLDkriT5GUFDvuJizW0mqcc-68TQxaVyibBIFvelrN9onaJNvF0VVw3hL4_ar-JPpEH9RNPu4O-x3FK1v4j-KI2GOjhYorIj2dA4-gmilQ0tJ59CKzlI77cOUZe_JoCM/s1600-h/barrel2.jpg"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 217px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhrrNmUZ0JM4lQhLDkriT5GUFDvuJizW0mqcc-68TQxaVyibBIFvelrN9onaJNvF0VVw3hL4_ar-JPpEH9RNPu4O-x3FK1v4j-KI2GOjhYorIj2dA4-gmilQ0tJ59CKzlI77cOUZe_JoCM/s320/barrel2.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5358203159719764706" /></a> We saw the RFD start to surge so we headed south out of its fury while a few other chasers got munched by the RFD bite. We are headed to GRI to see what tomorrow holds. An excellent day and a great storm.<br /><br />Paul<b>Paul Sirvatka</b>http://www.blogger.com/profile/15068965033022611607noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7447779378969421014.post-50011566235344533062009-06-21T07:54:00.001-07:002009-06-21T07:56:06.763-07:00One more day?We have been getting in late every day. This will be our 9th straight day chasing. I am VERY tired. But it has been worth it.<br /><br />Yesterday, we intercepted a very scary HP storm near McPherson yesterday. The storm went from nothing to 100kts gate to gate shear in 5 scans as low-level meso was very strong at times. Several tornadoes were reported but we were unable to see anything. Meso was on northeast side of this storm with huge RFD and low shelf along that region. We were close enough to look into the notch but the storm would occlude and heavy precip would wrap around it. The only way a tornado would have been seen was from up close within the precip, a place I did find safe enough. This happened twice and even though we were only a few miles away there was no way to see it. The best chance we had was actually right before total dark when the storm was near Herrington. We had a great view but at that time, no tornado touched down.<br /><br />Very much worth the trip! Great storm and a lot of lightning.<b>Paul Sirvatka</b>http://www.blogger.com/profile/15068965033022611607noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7447779378969421014.post-75573327141667203102009-06-17T23:04:00.000-07:002009-06-17T23:19:25.093-07:00One of the BestI must say, we worked for things today. Quickly, we left Salina at 11:00 in the morning thinking we would have an easy start to the day and a good lunch in Concordia. Instead, we started chasing by 11:30 as a storm formed on the warm advection pattern which was coupled with a shortwave trough.<br /><br />It was quite frustrating as two cells formed. We got on the wrong one and were unable to get in front of the second when a tornado was reported. By time we got east of it, the storm had weakened and no longer had a tornado threat. Fearing to miss our target area, we quickly made our way back. We had a quick McDonald's lunch and were soon chasing a severe storm near Kearney NE. The storm tornadoed while we were still some distance away. Although we saw the last few minutes of it, we were too far to get to it for pictures and to feel like we accomplished anything good.<br /><br />We stayed with the storm and were able to chase it quite well. It spun quite a bit and several times tried to tornado, but it just would not do it. Fearing we had missed the best time for tornadoes, we almost went to another storm to the northwest. However, this storm was still sucking air. We watched it continue to spin and look pretty nasty. We decided to position ourselves across the Platte River east of Grand Island. It was a good call since it tornadoed a bit soon after. A small debris cloud under the storm. I must say it was confusing and it looked like there were vortices rotating everywhere.<br /><br />We then went east on RT 34, along with a caravan of chasers. Yech!<br /><br />I looked at radar and thought there was a good place ahead of the hook a mile further to the north on a dirt road. It turned out fortuitous as we then saw a small tornado to the west. But it quickly redeveloped south of our position. About 1/2 mile south.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjA_dtNlJ5-7Q6v2ebxbbsg6I3XJ737NnAQQUzuOuYR271oLsORLlADX8QNVMtmgMy9aW-BJ00-srvJSFLAk23EQj_MpWWDEu_muPo2Y3b1XaMUWlQe8je6vSTa3_R6bd5WUVWkEXyeZfc/s1600-h/6-17-09_Aurora1.jpg"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 213px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjA_dtNlJ5-7Q6v2ebxbbsg6I3XJ737NnAQQUzuOuYR271oLsORLlADX8QNVMtmgMy9aW-BJ00-srvJSFLAk23EQj_MpWWDEu_muPo2Y3b1XaMUWlQe8je6vSTa3_R6bd5WUVWkEXyeZfc/s320/6-17-09_Aurora1.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5348547173216326610" /></a><br /><br />We watched this storm from the northwest side of the meso, right within the hook echo. Although we had fast inflow winds, I never felt we were in an unsafe place for the tornado, as close as we were.<br /><br />Soon after, the storm became quite large.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhwnxy0pjtzl2nKh1T1iDiKz00WfiHZ3-TDjWgE2Uvz2vCqheHJP73U9pBrAoFFIASXt7pUgUGslox9KO4HfswLlnjTSzggtzrHKNS-eldvYG8ky9AEGOoz2v-x-zPMqH9BWpr_T1ryjwQ/s1600-h/6-17-09_Aurora2.jpg"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 213px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhwnxy0pjtzl2nKh1T1iDiKz00WfiHZ3-TDjWgE2Uvz2vCqheHJP73U9pBrAoFFIASXt7pUgUGslox9KO4HfswLlnjTSzggtzrHKNS-eldvYG8ky9AEGOoz2v-x-zPMqH9BWpr_T1ryjwQ/s320/6-17-09_Aurora2.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5348547671943602802" /></a><br /><br />Later, we saw several power flashes as it was a large cone tornado with a dust barrel around it.<br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjkPvke7YcmDCCs_l-vgnIvJmC4sfwmQPyefT5IaZKcWZkrDOR3_0ujpRYdvEB2rkASjcnNYyG7ccF-i5rLWtX2KCInOsLGJfXjS9sLvbAZbgZHy_YV8Ie05mmj6umFz_NxLj15SOdgBio/s1600-h/6-17-09_Aurora3.jpg"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 213px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjkPvke7YcmDCCs_l-vgnIvJmC4sfwmQPyefT5IaZKcWZkrDOR3_0ujpRYdvEB2rkASjcnNYyG7ccF-i5rLWtX2KCInOsLGJfXjS9sLvbAZbgZHy_YV8Ie05mmj6umFz_NxLj15SOdgBio/s320/6-17-09_Aurora3.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5348547953729998210" /></a><br /><br />Fortunately for the town of Aurora, the tornado roped out before it hit the city limits. All in all a great chase day. We are in Freemont NE hoping for another good day tomorrow.<br /><br />Paul<b>Paul Sirvatka</b>http://www.blogger.com/profile/15068965033022611607noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7447779378969421014.post-59762161463316663492009-06-17T07:16:00.001-07:002009-06-17T07:17:37.405-07:00Cool SupercellSorry I have not been updating. I will do a review later. Things have been busy in a pretty good way!<br /><br />Yesterday, we hung out in SE KS in Sedan. After watching cu's fail in NW OK,we started north knowing that the advective processes near sunset would initiate convection slightly elevated. We watched several soft banded stratus bottoms with rock hard convective towers above them. They still pressed against a very formidable cap and softened quite a bit. Thinking it might be a few more hours we were wondering where anything would go. Seeing explosive development on radar near ICT we made a navigation error which cost us about 20 minutes through the winding roads of SE KS. We did manage to get into the notch about 20 minutes before sunset and were treated to quite a wonderful supercell. <br /><br />There was fairly weak inflow but there were two times that I thought a tornado were possible. The first had a good solid wall cloud (the funnel reports being quite unreliable) although nothing that screamed tornado imminent. The second was when the storm was right on top of Winfield. It looked like the storm was clear-slotting (very dark) and there was what *might* have been a large funnel. No power flashes underneath, we decided to drive up to get a closer look...1/2 mile away. It quickly fell apart and did no apparent touchdown. I didn't think it would based on very loose velocity structure in the midst of the hook.<br /><br />Nonetheless, a good end to a long day of waiting!<b>Paul Sirvatka</b>http://www.blogger.com/profile/15068965033022611607noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7447779378969421014.post-86997861583449836802009-06-13T21:41:00.001-07:002009-06-13T21:49:21.292-07:00Mesoscale MayhemLast night, my post was this as a call: "Springfield CO to Gage to Shamrock to AMA polygon."<br /><br />A big supercell was working its way from Southeast CO to Gage OK. Big storms were between AMA and Shamrock. The only problem was we were on a crappy storm north of AMA and lost due to un-see-able (at least to me) mesoscale features.<br /><br />The day was frustrating because although the environment was good in this region, we could not find a good initiator of the storms. We spent a lot of time in Stratford debating whether or not to go NW or S. Finally, with a good environment south, we headed south toward Dumas and then Amarillo. As we headed there an old out-flow boundary flew north and we could see cu's firing along that boundary. Then they exploded upon that boundary. We were underneath the storm in downtown AMA when the first severe warning was issued. we headed east with it and it started to look alright for a bit until a left split came flying north. After that, the day became dominated by left splits and storms that that poorly interacted with each other.<br /><br />My guess is that the right favored storms were contingent upon them being surface based. The OFB made them slightly elevated and so I think the straight line part of the hodograph that the storm actually saw was straight with maybe even a slight anticyclonic favor. In any event, the storm died.<br /><br />We headed to AMA for dinner and saw most of the Vortex 2 crew feeling the same way as we did. Wondering why we picked a favorable spot that just didn't get lucky. <br /><br />Science should not depend so much on luck. But I guess it does.<b>Paul Sirvatka</b>http://www.blogger.com/profile/15068965033022611607noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7447779378969421014.post-79871898374603700802009-05-25T18:05:00.000-07:002009-05-25T18:16:46.204-07:00The End of Trip 2.a and 2.bWe are almost home. Its amazing to think about the way the weather has been. Almost beyond comprehension. To put it in perspective, we have not had a weather watch anywhere in the country since Saturday. 9 DAYS AGO!! I would not have thought it was possible to go that long in May without some weather watch. In fact, there has not been a slight risk or more since Wednesday. And yet, despite all this, we had some good experiences on this trip. We saw a number of storms, drove through some hail, saw a lot of lightning and saw amazing parts of this country. We went on tours of NCAR and Scott AFB, we saw the only remaining wagon ruts from the Oregon trail, went to Estes Park, ate amazing food, and crossed the Platte River 2318 times. <br /><br />We learned some things too about group dynamics and maintaining a positive attitude when all else goes wrong. I must hand it to this group of stalwart chasers that despite many trying circumstances, they never let it get to them. They were always positive about the experiences. and learned to accept those things which cannot be changed. I feel that all of character was improved. <br /><br />Would we have changed the weather if we could have? Of course. But there were many great experiences that may be once-in-a-lifetime experiences. And we have stories to tell. And we will always remember that "Stupid May without Severe." <br /><br />Of course I am hoping that THAT is a once-in-a-lifetime experience.<b>Paul Sirvatka</b>http://www.blogger.com/profile/15068965033022611607noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7447779378969421014.post-15766742861537041042009-05-21T22:26:00.000-07:002009-05-21T22:33:12.263-07:00Making good out of badI haven't written for a while because it gets depressing with the weather being so bad. Vortex 2 is a very important research project that is basically getting nothing for the 12 million dollar price tag. I feel worse for them. And I feel worse for my students, since it is they who pay for the experience.<br /><br />And so I commit to do what I know to be best for the students and their educational experience. As we work hard, I can only hope that they truly appreciate what I am trying to do. The ones who have been around for a while are big in teaching this lesson. I hope that the newer students learn to appreciate the intricacies of weather.<br /><br />And on this trip, I think they have. I like the way this trip is going. We have had some fun storm experiences. Not great, but not bad either. And today was awesome. We spent a couple of hours at NCAR learning the bigger nature of Meteorology. THanks Eric Nelson for helping us set that up. It was a great day. <br /><br />Boulder also gave us a time of bonding and fun with micro-brewed beer, good food, swimming and a lot of laughs!<br /><br />So even though Nature is giving us a lemon, we are using it to sweeten our beer!<b>Paul Sirvatka</b>http://www.blogger.com/profile/15068965033022611607noreply@blogger.com12tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7447779378969421014.post-88389854624923018272009-05-19T07:20:00.000-07:002009-05-19T07:25:44.871-07:00Wow...Worst Weather Pattern...EVER2009 will probably go down as the worst severe weather pattern anyone will (hopefully) ever see. It is the most stagnant flow I have ever seen. Combine that with an almost tropical cyclone in the Gulf of Mexico, and the leads to the pattern least conducive for severe weather I, and most any others, have ever seen.<br /><br />So we leave today with very little expectation. We will head to the Nebraska Panhandle tomorrow and hope that the forecast storms may have a slight chance and showing supercellular structure. After that, it looks even worse. We will be heading to the mountains to try to get some understanding of mountain meteorology and maybe take some pictures of of lightning with a mountain backdrop. <br /><br />I hope to never see another year like this as long as I am storm chasing. The rest of the world is probably happy.<b>Paul Sirvatka</b>http://www.blogger.com/profile/15068965033022611607noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7447779378969421014.post-34946886946768149112009-05-16T06:23:00.000-07:002009-05-16T06:48:01.991-07:00Bow echoHad we not had this extensively sucky pattern, I would have considered yesterday an interesting chase. We chased north central to east central MO. Somewhere northwest of Columbia (De Witt) was our target as the storms came through into NW MO. It was a healthy looking bow/HP on radar and when we saw there was an inflow notch on the east side, we were hoping that the storm was hugging the warm front. Missouri and there "wonderful" obs showed cold air to the north and warm air to the south of I-70. We were not sure exactly where the front was. We found it. About ten miles north of I-70 because when we approached the storm temperatures were in the mid 60's. Very strong ENE winds were flowing into the storm. <br /><br />It soon lost its "inflow notch" and started to become a bow. Which was cool. We stayed at the apex of the bow for a long time. IT was dark and scary, some OK lightning and a great mix of boiling shelf clouds and aqua colors. The area was "chaseable" for a while although a little windy. Eventually, we headed south to get to the Interstate to get across the river. Of course, somewhere closer to STL the storm was tornado warned. We tried to head north no matter what but the roads NW of STL are awful. We just couldn't make it. We were in a lot of wind for a long time and were actually traveling along the intersection of two outflow boundaries, hoping to have a rogue storm develop in the cold air. Alas, it was not to happen.<br /><br />Ending up in IL we were in the warm air (still 81 at 7:30) but these storms were bound to be elevated above the front. We eventually called it off as our last hopes became dashed as cold air preceded rain by about 10 minutes.<br /><br />And now we go home and figure out what few days we want to go sight-seeing.<br /><br />Paul<b>Paul Sirvatka</b>http://www.blogger.com/profile/15068965033022611607noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7447779378969421014.post-5756060022921158242009-05-14T22:49:00.001-07:002009-05-14T22:50:38.372-07:00The start of Trip 2.aWe do a quick one day chase then go home and start up later this week. But for now, we are in S Charles MO.<br /><br />Models have changed their tunes quite a bit. And the GFS and WRF are greatly different, IMO. Right now we are in STL. I agree that the TX PH may be interesting if the WRF is correct, but it seems that the model is grabbing much too stout mid-level flow for what appears to be an overdone shortwave. Nonetheless, for those southern plains people, might be worth watching.<br /><br />Although storms will most likely fire in southern KS, I just feel that the in-between nature of that area will have less than ideal winds. Nonetheless, storms could be large and have some low-level turning.<br /><br />Further northeast toward Kansas City, it appears that there might be some chance early, but the surface winds appear to veer. This goes well with the poorer southern KS play as it puts ICT in a col point. Again, not ideal. Of course this is to believe the model. I would tend to pay attention to the GFS more because it has been more consistent. That brings us to MO/IL. Early action will be the case, as both models develop a lot of precip overnight and into tomorrow. That will create an effective baroclinic zone pretty strongly east of the so-forecast mesolow. Nonetheless, progged wind fields look pretty good across eastern MO and WRN IL.<br /><br />The 22Z PIA forecast sounding is pretty impressive in both model worlds. Storms that can fire along and just south of the front should have excellent shear, especially of there is some semblance of a low. And assuming that overnight convection doesn't hose things up too badly. I may be out to lunch, but I am thinking somewhere from Macon/IRK to Quincy/Hannibal to Beardstown IL could be a prime location tomorrow.<br /><br />FWIW, I throw that out!<b>Paul Sirvatka</b>http://www.blogger.com/profile/15068965033022611607noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7447779378969421014.post-32858346821537119812009-05-03T10:04:00.001-07:002009-05-03T10:22:08.544-07:00The Last Three DaysSorry not to have blogged for the last few days. I can give excuses and reasons but I am not going to. <br /><br />So there.<br /><br />Really, they were not anything spectacular. Friday had looked good originally. But the lack of a wave and good shear gave us pretty disappointing storms. We ended up down in NW TX and were about 45 miles north of a storm that actually tornadoed. The problem was the shear was bad. The tornado was pretty wimpy and only around for a few minutes. Despite explosive CAPES in the area, we actually needed something to make the storms better. The day before, low-level winds were southeast at around 15 knots underneath 25-30 kts at mid-levels. Friday, it was 5-10 kts at the surface, not very well backed, and not that strong at mid-levels (around 25kts.) It amazes me that such subtle differences result in big differences in storm structure and evolution.<br /><br />Now we did catch up to that storm and it pulsed up and down. Sometimes looking good and others not so good. The anvil became crisp when the storm was good and very wispy and diffuse when weak. One time it occluded and then rain wrapped into it. Someone reported a possible tornado. We were south of it but it would have been shrouded in rain. In any event, it was pretty lame. We followed it for a while and saw one time when it had good low-level rotation. It never occluded and never looked like it would tornado. Of course, some chasers who saw a wisp of dust underneath it claim it was a tornado. It is why I cannot stand some chasers. All they want is the glory of a tornado. They do not care about science or forecasting or learning. They are not worth much and I wish it were out-lawed. How about chasing is only legal when three or more are in a car. It would lessen the traffic out there.<br /><br />Oh well...back to the chase. We did get into some hail (quarters maybe) before we got south of the storm. It started blowing cold and we knew it was history. We cruised north to another pretty meaty storm, but by time we got there, it shriveled into nothingness.<br /><br />Saturday was a better set-up except for the cloud cover that would not go away. Soon after lunch storms broke out all over. We followed many of them to the northeast where a bow echo was underway. It looked like there were some QLCS tornadoes and a few times it looked good on radar. The warnings said the storm was moving northeast at 35 but we were traveling northeast at 65 and could not catch them. In fact, we stayed in the core of heavy rain for more than a half an hour. Lots of good CGs but other than that, not much to report. We stayed the night in Little Rock in the middle of lake Arkansas. The whole state is flooded. We are on the way home now. <br /><br />I hate typing in the van so I will say goodbye till trip 2, May 15!<br /><br />Paul<b>Paul Sirvatka</b>http://www.blogger.com/profile/15068965033022611607noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7447779378969421014.post-7146386461704393802009-04-30T23:57:00.000-07:002009-05-01T00:29:18.172-07:00Can't it just go easier?What a weird day. Targeted areas along the Red River near Vernon, TX. Had a great lunch at Rock Inn in Seymour. Awesome place! Gotta have some homemade pie! <br /><br />Anyway, after watching the outflow boundary (OFB) head a little north we decided to cross into OK. Watching cu's bubble along the dry line and further NW in OK we thought we would hedge our bets and play in the middle. We sat for about 2 hours in Granite OK. We waited and waited until after 7PM. Nothing was going on so we called the trip and were going back to the hotel in Lawton. Twenty minutes later we turned the corner and as I looked to the NW a series of strong towers had broken the cap. Just then Sam from the weather lab called me and said it was showing up on radar. <br /><br />Of course! Couldn't have started twenty minutes earlier. <br /><br />So we cruised north. It took a while but we made it just in time to watch a tornado warned storm about two miles to our north. We saw an attempt at a low-level occlusion with a rainy core wrapping into the updraft. No tornado was visible and we had a very good view of it. We watched a while longer before heading west to reposition to the storms south. We watched an incredible lightning display until the storm died soon afterward.<br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgVR1i7Be1LQ3SafChJYEOt1SJMyHt8g2LkQUzKkUwXUQfbT-AFsKUckTcB-RQdq0x7zd2c4aQJ30MPCX8nHf-uldRxAfw2m47gpEVZzXNVsxVnBMXpF8OXMOQvJBBP_ENJhIRPk3VoXuU/s1600-h/foss.jpg"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 213px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgVR1i7Be1LQ3SafChJYEOt1SJMyHt8g2LkQUzKkUwXUQfbT-AFsKUckTcB-RQdq0x7zd2c4aQJ30MPCX8nHf-uldRxAfw2m47gpEVZzXNVsxVnBMXpF8OXMOQvJBBP_ENJhIRPk3VoXuU/s320/foss.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5330754042183656226" /></a><br />It would have been nice to have been there a little earlier. But at least we got there. That is 8 supercells and three tornadoes in 7 days.<br /><br />And tomorrow and Saturday look good!<br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgAuyWJXUnArVC1HJv-CGrr3B7rjlGlOKBTb8CtG5wL_fXuazynay_UxnkLwBtuvfrIj2YtNa_dNX-I_vg7cbqzyMiqPh-8EbqXB8zJsoj205jba978vL1eQsijwn18epc9iN0ZyjB7yMs/s1600-h/foss2.jpg"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 213px; height: 320px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgAuyWJXUnArVC1HJv-CGrr3B7rjlGlOKBTb8CtG5wL_fXuazynay_UxnkLwBtuvfrIj2YtNa_dNX-I_vg7cbqzyMiqPh-8EbqXB8zJsoj205jba978vL1eQsijwn18epc9iN0ZyjB7yMs/s320/foss2.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5330754226796263602" /></a><br />See David Mayhews site for an amazing wealth of great pics from tonights storms.<br />http://www.davidmayhewphotography.com/<b>Paul Sirvatka</b>http://www.blogger.com/profile/15068965033022611607noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7447779378969421014.post-72433860371373745782009-04-30T06:41:00.000-07:002009-04-30T06:42:29.595-07:00A few more detailsPretty frustrating day as I mentioned on the nowcast part of the boards. Left Odessa after lunch to see storms to the north and a red box issued for them. We cruised north realizing the dry line had mixed further east than I though. I should have known that it was going to be loosely defined since it was not dynamic with a well-defined pressure trough. As we finally got back into the better moisture near Big Spring it became apparent that nothing was going to happen with that wave. What is it with all the high frequency short waves this year?<br /><br />We saw the storm that was about 50 miles south of Odessa go tornado-warned but decided we were going to stay within our forecast area and not chase it.<br />We did think that the newly formed outflow boundary would be a great mechanism for new storm growth and tornadic potential with enhanced vorticity. But of course, no storm formed in that region at all. So after making it to Gail, TX, it became clear to us that the only real good storms we north of that boundary along some of the older (and colder) ones further to the north. Wind fields were weaker but you have to have storms before you can have supercells.<br /><br />So we flew north (gosh I had forgotten how beautiful that part of TX is!) The storm that came off from Plainview (which btw was in an area of cu's that had been present north of the dry line bulge) was moving more easterly. Further to the west that was a real good supercell with tor's out and several other cells forming on some old boundary. They had a more northward moving motion to them and I felt that the storm out west could move just south of those others and move right along a better moisture or outflow feed.<br /><br />As we were near Floydada, we could see excellent tower growth to the NW so we pressed northward. As we approached there was a high based shelf cloud that looked almost base-like. Given the conditions, I felt that could not be the true base. Matt Powers texted me that on radar it looked like a big cold machine and I agreed. Nonetheless, I felt we needed to get a better look. Inside that base (and wide RFD) I saw a lowering, not unlike other HP storms with the low scuddy wall cloud. Given its proximity to earlier convection I wanted to make sure that it was really cold inside there. Heading north our driver radioed that it was a tornado he was observing possibly. I warned him to be careful of those words over radio and we were still too far to be sure.<br /><br />We moved north and it was a large barrel-like cone as Scott Blair indicated. We were driving right to it. We got out and snapped some pics.<br /><br />A second tornado formed to its east at the same time. Enhanced shear along the gust front I reckon. We got onto some really hairy mud ruds so we headed back south and west. A student believes that there was a third tornado and I tend to believe him. (so that might make Scott B's third if he did not see the secondary needle.)<br /><br />After heading south I saw vigorous cloud growth and figured I would bust south near Dicken's to get to these storms in less tainted air. There were impressive towers. Just east of Dickens we saw a great looking and scary storm. Todd Lindley from LBB called me and said they were interested in that storm as an OFB from the north storms was surging south and about to interact. We watched for a while and there was very strong low-level rotation. Unfortunately just as I though it had a chance to tornado, temperatures dropped like a rock and I knew it did not have a chance.<br /><br />We were not going to play in the core so we bolted west and south to get out of its beasty path. Lots of loops and CC bolts made it fun to watch for a while. All in all, a saved day.<b>Paul Sirvatka</b>http://www.blogger.com/profile/15068965033022611607noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7447779378969421014.post-71434339528894490462009-04-29T23:01:00.000-07:002009-04-29T23:17:16.918-07:00Cedar Hill Tornado!<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgcay3RjzonJ8NfAY1tQBW4H89-QPt7EVkFr9nBNs43j3ZRCgGqtOXZZq8g0p9AbtBR5CaECLo9oU6nZjwXsABzlXH70c6eV0DiylOASSVqXxaD12C8E4g0c8USEjS3t0Gmsn3wOaaGWdY/s1600-h/CedarHil4.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 213px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgcay3RjzonJ8NfAY1tQBW4H89-QPt7EVkFr9nBNs43j3ZRCgGqtOXZZq8g0p9AbtBR5CaECLo9oU6nZjwXsABzlXH70c6eV0DiylOASSVqXxaD12C8E4g0c8USEjS3t0Gmsn3wOaaGWdY/s320/CedarHil4.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5330364159032842594" /></a><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjNVBzWGcFupE3TrN-xeBhnDCW3Zwzmsl9cc0PJcgyDxax86pN5ppua7wDO05Kz_ojhopRW9yY5OC-VXl5kfP3O3BwdbO1W6o1fI1RImmfOWVpZHWP8G6C7KJix_TulgBWKkjvY0ee5vRU/s1600-h/CedarHill2.jpg"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 213px; height: 320px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjNVBzWGcFupE3TrN-xeBhnDCW3Zwzmsl9cc0PJcgyDxax86pN5ppua7wDO05Kz_ojhopRW9yY5OC-VXl5kfP3O3BwdbO1W6o1fI1RImmfOWVpZHWP8G6C7KJix_TulgBWKkjvY0ee5vRU/s320/CedarHill2.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5330363933833540130" /></a><br /><br />After a long, very frustrating, but greatly rewarding day, we saw a tornado. It is very late and I am tired, but the basics are: <br /><br />1 - We saw two tornadoes (maybe three) north of Floydada near Cedar Hill.<br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhw5LMCTWuGxOMIvrPyJHOuyh7TJQ_tPae7eE_FucxEe05UeqCynT5TMiIfgrKbZHb2k9tSdFz3knNytnUdui69Q8TmouijlPn-t3EaOXEHRG28Qn6KLIvO4wz3R7AIqkI0USEInVxt0Zs/s1600-h/CedarHill1.jpg"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 263px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhw5LMCTWuGxOMIvrPyJHOuyh7TJQ_tPae7eE_FucxEe05UeqCynT5TMiIfgrKbZHb2k9tSdFz3knNytnUdui69Q8TmouijlPn-t3EaOXEHRG28Qn6KLIvO4wz3R7AIqkI0USEInVxt0Zs/s320/CedarHill1.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5330363814036236162" /></a><br /><br />2 - We caught another storm that was close to producing a tornado until it laid down very cold outflow.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjRzpMlqzEGDbES21wRFKBS-N300uywN0I7CGdZg6vdWxS2VCyuYnAgz-LBTFuOsr5s3Xne0R8svAjgoyRoZfuuKpQCKtsiy-7TR6tfNJjSYtehl590tydvVnvPsU1q06mea0dm5U74iVc/s1600-h/Dickens2.jpg"><img style="float:right; margin:0 0 10px 10px;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 213px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjRzpMlqzEGDbES21wRFKBS-N300uywN0I7CGdZg6vdWxS2VCyuYnAgz-LBTFuOsr5s3Xne0R8svAjgoyRoZfuuKpQCKtsiy-7TR6tfNJjSYtehl590tydvVnvPsU1q06mea0dm5U74iVc/s320/Dickens2.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5330364295334711458" /></a><b>Paul Sirvatka</b>http://www.blogger.com/profile/15068965033022611607noreply@blogger.com1