After a depressing start to our trip we are starting a chase today. We left last Thursday and chased Friday but were met by a letdown of storms unable to fire in southeastern NE.Saturday was a cold mess with the only good storms racing through Mississippi in areas almost impossible to chase. I never have chased in MS and may never end up there by choice.
Anyway, today's forecast looks like this. Let's hope I can update this blog many times this year with good summaries of successful chases.
I love it when the models start to follow my analysis. I was not sure of the problem with the CA soundings last night and whether or not the 00Z run was affected by that. I was surprised at the extent of the low to the north. This morning’s run seemed better with the low and attendant triple point further south. We did a lot of analysis last night and this morning and saw the development of a greater CIN layer that moved from SW KS to SE NE this morning. In its wake, lower mid-level lapse rates and weaker capping are also present. Cooler mid-level air looks to advect in and thus the model eradicates CIN by 00Z. Additional forcing is possible with as the SE CO low moves east and deepens slightly in association with jet diffluence. As Rich pointed out subtle shortwave INVOF four corners region may affect parts of the southern and central plains by later this PM.
I believe storms are most likely to initiate in the SLN-HUT-GBD area. It would be nice to have 84/61 and that is what we are hoping for initially. Modified DDC sounding indicates no cap left at those readings. The WRF does not have a tight moisture gradient as expected and we are hoping that those values can make it to region of greatest low-level convergence. Storm motion may be along quasi-stationary front and tornado-potential looks to be enhanced if not undercut too rapidly given relatively high LCL’s.
I would think other storms are possible down the dry line toward the OK border given 60 dews. Currently we are watching for the 63 dews to advect north and slightly west across north TX.
After a long week of nothing, we are hoping for daytime convection. We will also be happy with good lightning tonight!