Saturday, April 25, 2009

Here's to Possibilities

Like old times. A real impressive set up today. Not too huge, not too strong but just a good combination of elements. So let's get started.

All the garbage in the atmosphere seems to be moving east. Very impressive "winter" jet now strongest across the upper midwest is being replaced by a split flow with an upper trough out to the southwest. Yesterday's messy analysis was replaced by a very easy to analyze set-up today. Most impressive winds (concerning today's weather) are still in the four corners region but sufficient mid/upper flow should be present across the Panhandle of TX and Wrn OK. Expected 500 mb flow of 35-45 kts with slightly backed sfc flow should set deep layer shears values in the 40-45 kt range sufficient for supercells.

CAPE value will be very unstable with SBCAPE values approaching 3000 J/kg as deep albeit in the mid 60's-dew points, makes it way into most of the southern plains. DRT sounding showed a great "Its about time" moisture profile.

Most impressive was the EML in place over the plains with 700-500mb Delta-T's above 20 deg C with 23 at DDC and TOP. This will set the stage for rapid development of storms as soon as CINH is overcome. This should be in the 22-23Z time frame if the progs hold out truth.

The cold front has slipped south, especially the WRN edge of it and connects with a dry line in the TX PH this morning. ERN portions keep KS in mosit and warm air. Initiation will probably occur in many area along the front in SRN KS and NRN OK. This may be overlooked by the plethora of other chasers (bring back the early 90's) who will be heading to Canadian TX. The triple point is just the obvious play and seeing as we seek the best, we will head there also.

We are headed toward Enid OK and then target west. Would think we will make the TX PH but who knows for sure.I think it is possible to stay in OK but would love NE TX pH north of the Canadian River.Just don't know if the front will return north early enough. Nonetheless, The area should be quite active tonight with the threat for strong tornadoes at or after dark with the onset of the low-level nocturnal jet. Impressive hodograph shape and size should allow for isolated storms to contain a significant tornado threat. In any event, should be a lot of lightning and hial (oy) with very dry air aloft.

All in all, a big severe weather day in the southern plains. It is what we chase for.


Matt Powers said...

mmmmm hial. Oy Hial!!!!!!!!!

Brandon Brown said...

Good luck today Paul...your forecast is a beautiful thing to read compared to a lot of others on Stormtrack, for example!