Saturday, April 25, 2009

Day 2 Bust

What a let-down. So many hopes and so little to show for it. IMHO today really sucked. Others may say there were a lot of good storms. But after many many years of chasing I know when storms are good and these were not. Of course, to hear the reports from other chasers, you would think a super outbreak were occurring. I can't stand so many chasers. But more on that later.

So the dew points sucked. We were early on the storm in Grey County. 87/56 is not what we were expecting. Where were the mid 60 dew points? Didn't show up till later and even then, they were not abundant. Storm bases were about 8000-9000 feet it seemed like.

Other storms were moving northward. Don't ask me how that happened. Didn't see a split....just storms moving north. Of course, our storm played with the front and appeared to go through a few occlusions. Just no chance to tornado. We heard someone report condensation to the ground. WE were right there. Didn't see anything close. Either it was bogus (so many other stupid reports today) or it happened so fast that we just didnt happen to see anything. I remain skeptical. There are not many chasers I really trust these days.

Maybe that is the problem. Chasers who chase without really paying their dues. I understand that sometimes it is groups like mine that create the problem. Chase once or twice, then go out on their own. Maybe I just resent that chasers can just do stuff now without really having to learn. To struggle and to bust in the old days gave us the knowledge that so many others seems to take for granted. And I doubt that they really have the experience to know what is going on. I have seen and heard chasers talk about features that are completely mis-identified.

The forecast (and I was there with all of them) just proved how little we know. My guess? Lower dew points due to greater vertical mixing. Slightly shortwave ridging allowing for dry air to descend into the CBL. Weak convergence across the whole frontal boundary. Weak convergence along the pseudo-dry line. Not much of a dynamic dry-line. Scarcely a trough could be analyzed.

We did what we could but it was a let down. And very little good lightning. Glad I can forecast that...NOT! No good structure. Just a real let-down after what I was expecting. Maybe tomorrow will be better.

Only in golf and chasing would a crappy day be followed by excitement to do it again.

A bad day chasing beats a good day at COD any day!


PS Thanks for all the nowcast help. I would love to go through stuff since there is some stuff that is lacking on the understanding of the event. I hope many of the nowcasters can work with me or Matt soon to see how to do stuff. But much thanks anyway. Good to know you had our backs!


Anonymous said...

SPC was calling those storms all supercells, but I couldn't see any rotation. Somtimes it looked like there was a hook on a couple storms, but when I checked velocity I couldn't see any rotation. Plus it wouldn't last for more than two scans. - Cathy

Weather Central said...

Yeah, what a letdown indeed.
You're probably right about the moisture. And the dryline just never sharpened up enough.

I am still a little rusty, so any pointers on improving my nowcasting skills are appreciated. :)