Friday, April 24, 2009

Day 1 in review/Day 2 look ahead

Well, we realized that Saturday looked to good to fool around with stupid storms in IA/NE so after being slightly hesitant, we decided to leave the possible storms for the day and head down to Wichita, KS. We will get a good night's sleep and have time to analyze tomorrow morning before leaving.

I sure do like the look of tomorrow in many ways. To add to other's discussions, todays WRF was too fast in pushing the front southward. GFS had a better handle on it. Tomorrow looks the same. WRF had been too aggressive in pushing the front through while the GFS backs it more toward the KS border. What I liked about today was the front did not have too tight a thermal gradient, especially in the western part. Temperature were able to stay fairly warm even with north winds. Tomorrow should be better with strong pressure rises only being observed across IA tonight. Better dew points south of the front are the result of favorable trajectories across the GoM and Atlantic. It may not be the really rich moisture with Flow from the southern Carribean, but it does bring air with long residence times from the water into TX. Already, there are 70's along the coast.

Would think of targeting the Woodward-Canadian-Perryton-Beaver quadrangle for tomorrow, with an eye further south should the WRF be more on target. I beleive the GFS is not tight enough along boundaries with thermodynamic parameters and stays too capped for that reason.

Will analyze tomorrow morning and make the call then. BTW Sunday looks awesome does many other days this week.


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