Friday, April 24, 2009

Here goes the 20th year...

We left this morning at around 9AM. Today is not looking so good. But since we are here to chase we are still going to have a look-see. Looks like we will head to DSM and then south a bit along I-35. I want to go to Jess n Jim's which looks like a better choice than the storms. And we need to get to the TX panhandle tomorrow, which looks good.

It looks like the atmosphere is trying to shake off the scars of all the slow-moving closed lows this spring. Still a weird mix of good flow and mini circulations on the maps this AM. However, the return of moisture has begun in earnest. I still think tomorrow looks like the better day. The front (with really cold air in southern Canada...boo Canucks!:-) is pushing south pretty fast. The best winds are going to end up north of that frontal boundary.So although there will be some good CAPEs I am not sure if shear is going to be really good.

Nonetheless, storms can play right on that boundary and ingest good helicity so we cant write off today completely.

Tomorrow, the front stalls across NW OK and intersects a dry line southward into TX. Latest guidance progs a 500 mb wind max into that region and aslo develops convection before 00Z. So although the cap is strong, sufficient convergence ought to eliminate that cap through the PM tomorrow. Preliminary look at Sunday looks pretty good also. The whole week actually has promise. So we continue. Yeah spring!

4 comments:

Anonymous said...

Hi Paul...I concur on tomorrow being a good day...Sunday doesn't look too bad either. I really wish I could be there with all of you, especially since Jess & Jim's is on the menu later...

Best of Luck to all of you and God Bless and God Speed

Mark Yoder

Weather Central said...

I'll be following along! Good luck!

tmesser said...

I'm following along too, and anxiously awaiting trip 4!

Anonymous said...

I chased once