Monday, May 19, 2008

A New Experience in Weather

For the years we have been chasing we have often talked about bad patterns and death ridges. We have seen eastern troughs shut down the Gulf and bring cooler temperatures to the plains. I thought we had seen it all but quite frankly, this takes the cake!

I remember some cut-off lows in the Southwest slowly make its way to the east and we have waited eagerly for that flow to make it over the mountains. Going into New Mexico and chasing the western fringes of the Caprock. But what do you do now?

All I can say is that the solutions to this situation from a model perspective tell me how far we have to go to understand meteorological forecasting. I have NO IDEA how the funky omega-type block gets the patterns it does (especially on the op ECMWF solution) and then as the GFS points out go to the little ribbon of a mid-level jet before flow decreases so much. At least the one thing we DO KNOW is it won't look like it is progged to look.

So for the week...because we are out here...Palmer Divide tomorrow to see some convection perhaps...Wednesday, NE panhandle (small area but looks nice...) and then for the next few days, we hope that some shear gets juxtaposed over some CAPE *somewhere* over the high plains. It is what it is...let's find the needle!


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