A very frustrating day was saved by an hour's worth of excellent storm viewing. Our target area convected twice only to sucker us away from storms further to the north. The lack of low-level lapse rates probably killed us. More about that later when and if I have time. It was frustrating because we kept going around in circles. We finally got back to Pecos when the storm on extreme southern NM started getting its act together. WE decided we could catch it if it turned right (which it did!) and we were treated to a great view of a pretty storm. Never felt a tornado was imminent although there was some good motion beneath the wall cloud.
I took a few picture which I will try to post later. My card reader may not be working so it may have to wait.
Today:
Two outflow boundaries are present: one near and just north of LBB and the other about two counties south of there. Dry line will take a while to really get going and will probably not make it too far east due to the presence of intense and deep moisture. Great EML will cap things a bit but allow for explosive development later today. Morning analysis and RUC mesoanalysis indicate excellent mid-level flow will probably be further south than the areas of the northern TX PH.
I believe that the nose of an analyzed and forecasted 259 jet will makes its way into the south plains, tighten the dry line and bulge it slightly. The proximity of the OFB's and the dry line should be there target point. Early target will be in the Lamesa/Seminole region. Would not count out just north of LBB.
As others have pointed out, 700mb is weak and I do not have much hope for improvement. Although it may be sufficient for wet-classic type structure early. Monster hail may be a problem with a well pronounced dry prod west of the area. WRLY UT jet flow may also throw that hail and precip to the east so be careful from where you observe these storms.
BTW...tomorrow may have more impact in TX that originally thought....if the WRF is to be believed.
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