Saturday, May 17, 2008

The Start of Trip 2

Funny, but here goes the roller coaster. Terrible-GREAT-Horrible. I know this feeling all too well. But let's look at some positives.

1. By Wednesday the Gulf of Mexico should be wide open. Moisture will head north and stay around for quite some time. I think we can pretty much rely on a good stream of moisture throughout the central US.

2. There is lower pressure out west and higher pressure somewhat east. Low-level winds should be moderately southerly without a strong crashing cold front. After all we have seen this year, this ain't bad.

3. Given the surface winds backing, shear should be pretty decent for rotating storms.

4. It is May and things are quiet now. How often have there been 10 days of no severe in the US in mid May? Climatology (FWIW) is on our side.


1. Model solutions are constantly changing. So what else is new. We are still at 4-7 days out for most of the excitement. How often do good patterns turn sour and bad set-ups improve? The only thing I know is that good patterns staying good throughout several days is a rare event in my book.

2. Locations of storms may not be the best for the southern plains hopefuls. I want them across SRN NE to TX as much as the next person, but if one is able to expand one's territory, there are still several good plays in the upcoming week (potentially). The further north, the weaker the cap. Dakotas and MN look like they could light up a bit. And trust me, this area is DUE (of course I am Cubs fan and have been DUE for a heckuva long time.) Nonetheless, if one can be flexible in where they are looking, there should still be good storms somewhere!

3. Details are always uncertain and gas prices are high!

So here is to following tea leaves...I would suggest starting in Kearney and hoping good storms form within 500 miles! I will talk to you all next week when the moisture is back.


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