Thursday, May 14, 2009

The start of Trip 2.a

We do a quick one day chase then go home and start up later this week. But for now, we are in S Charles MO.

Models have changed their tunes quite a bit. And the GFS and WRF are greatly different, IMO. Right now we are in STL. I agree that the TX PH may be interesting if the WRF is correct, but it seems that the model is grabbing much too stout mid-level flow for what appears to be an overdone shortwave. Nonetheless, for those southern plains people, might be worth watching.

Although storms will most likely fire in southern KS, I just feel that the in-between nature of that area will have less than ideal winds. Nonetheless, storms could be large and have some low-level turning.

Further northeast toward Kansas City, it appears that there might be some chance early, but the surface winds appear to veer. This goes well with the poorer southern KS play as it puts ICT in a col point. Again, not ideal. Of course this is to believe the model. I would tend to pay attention to the GFS more because it has been more consistent. That brings us to MO/IL. Early action will be the case, as both models develop a lot of precip overnight and into tomorrow. That will create an effective baroclinic zone pretty strongly east of the so-forecast mesolow. Nonetheless, progged wind fields look pretty good across eastern MO and WRN IL.

The 22Z PIA forecast sounding is pretty impressive in both model worlds. Storms that can fire along and just south of the front should have excellent shear, especially of there is some semblance of a low. And assuming that overnight convection doesn't hose things up too badly. I may be out to lunch, but I am thinking somewhere from Macon/IRK to Quincy/Hannibal to Beardstown IL could be a prime location tomorrow.

FWIW, I throw that out!


Dan Murray said...

Good luck Paul and everyone on Trip Two... The year got off to a good start and I'm sure you guys will continue that trend. If you ARE in wrn IL you may run into me... I need my chase fix!

Marny said...

Have a nice trip you all, I will be following this blog every day.
Wish you all nice storms and good steaks ...
All the best from Belgium,